Yankees at Royals
Last play · Jac Caglianone grounds out softly, pitcher Ryan Yarbrough to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Royals0%
NYY 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 10 – 1 KC
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-199 / +163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Amed Rosario homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Ben Rice scores. (inning 1) — -16% Yankees
9Amed Rosario homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Ben Rice scores.15–1
8Austin Wells singles on a line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Anthony Volpe scores.13–1
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.12–1
7Trent Grisham homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.11–1
5Aaron Judge doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Trent Grisham to 3rd.10–1
3Bobby Witt Jr. homers (9) on a line drive to right center field.9–1
3Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Anthony Volpe scores. Austin Wells scores. Aaron Judge out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Jac Caglianone to third baseman Maikel Garcia.9–0
3Trent Grisham grounds out to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Amed Rosario scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd. Austin Wells to 2nd.7–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
