Rangers at Royals
Last play · Joc Pederson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
TEX 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 KC
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jac Caglianone homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 5) — +20% Royals
7Corey Seager grounds out to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Joc Pederson scores.3–5
6Jac Caglianone homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.2–5
6Vinnie Pasquantino hits a ground-rule double (10) on a fly ball to center field. Maikel Garcia scores.2–3
6Maikel Garcia triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Carter Jensen scores.2–2
5Jac Caglianone homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
4Kyle Higashioka flies out to center fielder Kyle Isbel.2–0
2Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Wyatt Langford scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
