Yankees at Royals
Last play · Vinnie Pasquantino grounds out, pitcher Camilo Doval to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Royals0%
NYY 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 0 KC
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice triples (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Paul Goldschmidt scores. (inning 4) — -14% Yankees
8Ryan McMahon homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Trent Grisham scores.7–0
7Ben Rice singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Anthony Volpe scores. Ryan McMahon scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 3rd.5–0
7Carter Jensen challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Paul Goldschmidt walks. Trent Grisham scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd. Ryan McMahon to 2nd.3–0
4Aaron Judge out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Ben Rice scores.2–0
4Ben Rice triples (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Paul Goldschmidt scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
