Rangers at Royals
Last play · Tyler Tolbert grounds into a double play, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Ezequiel Duran. Kameron Misner out at 3rd. Tyler Tolbert out at 1st.
Win probability
Royals0%
TEX 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 2 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elias Díaz doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 10) — -26% Rangers
10Josh Jung walks. Elias Díaz scores. Nicky Lopez to 3rd. Jake Burger to 2nd.6–4
10Elias Díaz doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Ezequiel Duran scores.5–4
8Jake Burger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lane Thomas. Evan Carter scores. Michael Helman to 3rd. Nicky Lopez to 2nd.4–4
7Nick Loftin triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Jac Caglianone scores.3–4
7Jake Burger homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
6Lane Thomas singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Isaac Collins scores.2–3
5Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Starling Marte to 3rd.2–2
4Rangers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nicky Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Wyatt Langford scores. Ezequiel Duran out at home on the throw, right fielder Jac Caglianone to catcher Salvador Perez. Evan Carter to 2nd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
