Astros at Royals
HOU10–
KC8Last play · Salvador Perez grounds out to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Royals0%
HOU 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 9 – 5 KC
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Massey doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Maikel Garcia scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd. (inning 1) — -22% Astros
9Brice Matthews homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.10–8
8Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a ground ball to shortstop Jeremy Peña, deflected by third baseman Isaac Paredes. Michael Massey scores. Isaac Collins to 3rd. Carter Jensen to 2nd.9–8
8Carter Jensen walks. Salvador Perez scores. Michael Massey to 3rd. Isaac Collins to 2nd.9–7
8Michael Massey singles on a line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Maikel Garcia scores. Salvador Perez to 2nd.9–6
1Kameron Misner singles on a fly ball to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Salvador Perez scores. Michael Massey scores.9–5
1Michael Massey doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Maikel Garcia scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.9–3
1Maikel Garcia grounds into a force out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Jose Altuve. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino out at 2nd. Maikel Garcia to 1st.9–2
1Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a line drive to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.9–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.