Rangers at Royals
Last play · Michael Massey lines out to left fielder Wyatt Langford.
Win probability
Royals0%
TEX 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 2 KC
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Evan Carter singles on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Ezequiel Duran scores. Jake Burger out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Lane Thomas to third baseman Nick Loftin. (inning 6) — -14% Rangers
6Evan Carter singles on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Ezequiel Duran scores. Jake Burger out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Lane Thomas to third baseman Nick Loftin.4–2
4Kameron Misner singles on a line drive to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Jac Caglianone scores.3–2
4Michael Massey grounds into a double play, second baseman Nicky Lopez to shortstop Corey Seager to first baseman Jake Burger. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd. Lane Thomas out at 2nd. Michael Massey out at 1st.3–1
3Corey Seager homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.3–0
2Elias Díaz singles on a bunt ground ball to third baseman Nick Loftin. Ezequiel Duran scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.2–0
1Brandon Nimmo doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Corey Seager scores. Brandon Nimmo out at 3rd, pitcher Michael Wacha to third baseman Nick Loftin.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
