Astros at Royals
Last play · Isaac Collins lines into a double play, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Jose Altuve. Bobby Witt Jr. out at 2nd.
Win probability
Royals0%
HOU 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 4 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Salvador Perez scores. Michael Massey scores. Lane Thomas scores. (inning 6) — +46% Royals
9Christian Walker grounds into a force out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Nick Loftin. Joey Loperfido scores. Yordan Alvarez out at 2nd. Christian Walker to 1st.8–7
8Jose Altuve homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Isaac Paredes scores.7–7
6Carter Jensen doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Salvador Perez scores. Michael Massey scores. Lane Thomas scores.5–7
6Jake Meyers homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.5–4
5Brice Matthews homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Meyers scores.4–4
4Lane Thomas homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
4Christian Walker homers (18) on a line drive to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores.2–3
3Maikel Garcia challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Maikel Garcia called out on strikes.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
