Cardinals at Royals
STL6–
KC14Last play · Jimmy Crooks strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
STL 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 11 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Salvador Perez scores. (inning 2) — +15% Royals
8Carter Jensen pops out to shortstop José Fermín.6–14
7Lane Thomas singles on a ground ball to center fielder José Fermín. Isaac Collins scores.6–13
7Pedro Pagés out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Starling Marte. Blaze Jordan scores.6–12
7José Fermín grounds out, shortstop Tyler Tolbert to first baseman Jac Caglianone. Masyn Winn scores. Blaze Jordan to 3rd.5–12
6Salvador Perez homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.4–12
5José Fermín singles on a line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Masyn Winn scores.4–11
4Nick Loftin doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Starling Marte scores. Carter Jensen scores.3–11
4Jac Caglianone homers (9) on a line drive to left center field. Tyler Tolbert scores.3–9
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.