Rays at Royals
Last play · Salvador Perez lines out to shortstop Taylor Walls.
Win probability
Royals0%
TB 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 8 – 3 KC
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 3) — -35% Rays
8Bobby Witt Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.10–4
6Taylor Walls walks. Jonny DeLuca scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Ben Williamson to 2nd.10–3
6Ben Williamson walks.9–3
5Rays challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nick Fortes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Ben Williamson scores. Taylor Walls scores. Nick Fortes out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Isaac Collins to third baseman Nick Loftin to first baseman Salvador Perez.8–3
3Bobby Witt Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Isaac Collins scores.6–3
3Ben Williamson singles on a line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Jonny DeLuca scores.6–1
3Ryan Vilade homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
3Junior Caminero homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda scores.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
