Cardinals at Royals
Last play · Isaac Collins grounds out, pitcher Riley O'Brien to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Royals0%
STL 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 12 – 7 KC
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt scores. (inning 5) — -17% Cardinals
9Cardinals challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Lane Thomas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Blaze Jordan. Salvador Perez scores. Michael Massey to 2nd.12–10
9Jac Caglianone homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.12–9
6Carter Jensen homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.12–8
5Iván Herrera homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt scores.12–7
4Salvador Perez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Carter Jensen scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd.9–7
2Jac Caglianone homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Isaac Collins scores.9–6
2Nick Loftin homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Kameron Misner scores.9–4
2Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to third baseman Nick Loftin. Alec Burleson scores.9–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
