Phillies at Royals
Last play · Starling Marte strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals0%
PHI 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 1 KC
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto homers (6) on a line drive to left center field. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 4) — -26% Phillies
8Gabriel Rincones Jr. doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kameron Misner. Alec Bohm scores.6–1
7Brandon Marsh grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Jac Caglianone.5–1
6Alec Bohm homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
4Nick Loftin singles on a ground ball to third baseman Alec Bohm. Lane Thomas scores.3–1
4Gabriel Rincones Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.3–0
4J.T. Realmuto homers (6) on a line drive to left center field. Bryson Stott scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
