Phillies at Royals
Last play · Gabriel Rincones Jr. grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Jac Caglianone.
Win probability
Royals100%
PHI 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 3 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Garrett Stubbs grounds into a force out, pitcher John Schreiber to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Bryson Stott scores. Justin Crawford out at 2nd. Garrett Stubbs to 1st. (inning 7) — -14% Phillies
8Salvador Perez doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Lane Thomas scores.2–5
7Garrett Stubbs grounds into a force out, pitcher John Schreiber to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Bryson Stott scores. Justin Crawford out at 2nd. Garrett Stubbs to 1st.2–3
5Jac Caglianone out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Isaac Collins scores.1–3
5Gabriel Rincones Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lane Thomas. Bryson Stott scores.1–2
1Michael Massey singles on a line drive to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Lane Thomas scores.0–2
1Lane Thomas doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
