Phillies at Royals
PHI1–
KC15Last play · Bryson Stott strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
PHI 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 10 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-219 / +178
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jac Caglianone grounds into a force out, second baseman Bryson Stott to shortstop Trea Turner. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Salvador Perez out at 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Trea Turner. (inning 1) — +14% Royals
8Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Luke Maile scores. Michael Massey to 3rd. Isaac Collins to 2nd.1–15
8Michael Massey singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Tyler Tolbert scores. Luke Maile to 2nd.1–14
7Nick Loftin grounds out to first baseman Garrett Stubbs. Michael Massey scores. Isaac Collins to 3rd. Jac Caglianone to 2nd.1–13
7Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to right fielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. Kameron Misner scores. Michael Massey to 3rd. Isaac Collins to 2nd.1–12
6Starling Marte singles on a ground ball to center fielder Derek Hill. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Nick Loftin to 2nd.1–11
5Tyler Tolbert homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–10
4Lane Thomas homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.1–9
3Tyler Tolbert doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Nick Loftin scores.1–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.