Padres at Royals
Last play · Miguel Andujar grounds into a double play, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Michael Massey to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Ty France out at 2nd. Miguel Andujar out at 1st.
Win probability
Royals100%
SD 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 4 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 10.5 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lane Thomas homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Carter Jensen scores. (inning 1) — +17% Royals
6Salvador Perez homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.1–6
4Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Michael Massey scores.1–4
3Jac Caglianone doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Carter Jensen scores.1–3
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
1Lane Thomas homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Carter Jensen scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
