Giants at Royals
Last play · Nick Loftin hits a sacrifice bunt. Josh Rojas scores. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd. Nick Loftin to 1st.
Win probability
Royals100%
SF 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 3 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willy Adames homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Jung Hoo Lee scores. (inning 9) — -44% Giants
9Nick Loftin hits a sacrifice bunt. Josh Rojas scores. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd. Nick Loftin to 1st.3–4
9Willy Adames homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Jung Hoo Lee scores.3–3
4Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Michael Massey scores.1–3
4Salvador Perez homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.1–2
4Heliot Ramos homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
