Padres at Royals
SD19–
KC2Last play · Michael Massey grounds out, first baseman Miguel Andujar to pitcher Wandy Peralta.
Win probability
Royals0%
SD 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 2 KC
Padres led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Luis Rengifo scores. Jase Bowen scores. Luis Campusano to 3rd. (inning 2) — -25% Padres
9Sung-Mun Song singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Miguel Andujar scores. Luis Rengifo scores. Jase Bowen to 2nd.19–2
9Jase Bowen hit by pitch. Gavin Sheets scores. Miguel Andujar to 3rd. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.17–2
9Ty France homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.16–2
9Jackson Merrill homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Sung-Mun Song scores.15–2
8Ty France hits a grand slam (13) to left field. Sung-Mun Song scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado scores.13–2
8Fernando Tatis Jr. reaches on a fielder's choice. Luis Rengifo scores. Sung-Mun Song to 3rd. Fielding error by shortstop Tyler Tolbert.9–2
6Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (7) on a line drive to left field.8–2
4Jackson Merrill homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.7–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.