Giants at Royals
Last play · Drew Gilbert lines out to left fielder Isaac Collins.
Win probability
Royals100%
SF 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 1 KC
Giants led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Loftin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Salvador Perez scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 3rd. Starling Marte to 2nd. (inning 6) — +19% Royals
6Nick Loftin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Salvador Perez scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 3rd. Starling Marte to 2nd.2–3
6Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Isaac Collins scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.2–2
5Heliot Ramos reaches on a fielder's choice. Drew Gilbert scores. Christian Koss to 3rd. Throwing error by shortstop Tyler Tolbert.2–1
5Drew Gilbert singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Jesus Rodriguez scores.1–1
3Carter Jensen homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
