Giants at Royals
Last play · Jung Hoo Lee pops out to third baseman Nick Loftin.
Win probability
Royals100%
SF 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 0 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-142 / +118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lane Thomas singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Starling Marte scores. Nick Loftin scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd. (inning 7) — +31% Royals
9Casey Schmitt homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.4–5
7Lane Thomas singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Starling Marte scores. Nick Loftin scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd.3–5
7Nick Loftin singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Michael Massey scores. Starling Marte to 2nd.3–3
7Salvador Perez homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.3–2
7Willy Adames hits a ground-rule double (22) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Jung Hoo Lee scores.3–0
7Jung Hoo Lee triples (4) on a line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Rafael Devers scores.2–0
6Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lane Thomas. Willy Adames scores. Drew Gilbert to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
