Twins at Royals
Last play · Kody Clemens called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIN 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 1 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Massey homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 7) — +31% Royals
7Michael Massey homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
5Kyle Isbel out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kody Clemens. Michael Massey scores. Nick Loftin to 3rd.1–1
4Victor Caratini grounds into a double play, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Michael Massey to first baseman Jac Caglianone. Josh Bell scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd. Royce Lewis out at 2nd. Victor Caratini out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
