Cubs at Royals
Last play · Kyle Isbel strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals0%
CHC 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 2 KC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a ground ball to second baseman Michael Massey. Carson Kelly scores. Pedro Ramírez scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Throwing error by second baseman Michael Massey. (inning 2) — -25% Cubs
8Salvador Perez grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Michael Busch. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.6–4
8Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Tyler Tolbert scores.6–3
8Pedro Ramírez homers (2) on a line drive to right field.6–2
7Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.5–2
5Carter Jensen homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
2Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.4–1
2Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a ground ball to second baseman Michael Massey. Carson Kelly scores. Pedro Ramírez scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Throwing error by second baseman Michael Massey.2–1
1Isaac Collins doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Carter Jensen scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
