Twins at Royals
Last play · Isaac Collins challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Isaac Collins called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals0%
MIN 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Loftin. Ryan Jeffers scores. Alex Jackson scores. Royce Lewis to 2nd. (inning 8) — -52% Twins
8Brooks Lee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Loftin. Ryan Jeffers scores. Alex Jackson scores. Royce Lewis to 2nd.4–3
8Josh Bell singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Loftin. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Jeffers to 3rd.2–3
6Salvador Perez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.1–3
5Royce Lewis homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
3Jac Caglianone singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Alan Roden. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
