Athletics at Royals
Last play · Brian Serven grounds out, second baseman Michael Massey to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
ATH 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 4 – 6 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+168 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Jac Caglianone scores. Maikel Garcia scores. (inning 1) — +17% Royals
9Jonah Heim grounds into a double play, second baseman Michael Massey to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Carlos Cortes scores. Tommy White to 3rd. Donovan Walton out at 2nd. Jonah Heim out at 1st.5–9
8Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.4–9
8Bobby Witt Jr. doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Carter Jensen scores.4–8
6Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.4–7
5Brian Serven homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Donovan Walton scores.4–6
5Tommy White homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.2–6
3Kyle Isbel singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Michael Massey scores. Isaac Collins to 3rd.1–6
2Bobby Witt Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Isbel scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
