Athletics at Royals
ATH7–
KC9Last play · Henry Bolte grounds out, third baseman Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
ATH 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 5 – 1 KC
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -182
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · John Rave doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Tyler Tolbert scores. Kyle Isbel scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 8) — +37% Royals
9Max Muncy homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Donovan Walton scores.7–9
8Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. John Rave scores.5–9
8John Rave doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Tyler Tolbert scores. Kyle Isbel scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.5–8
8Isaac Collins out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Salvador Perez scores. Tyler Tolbert to 3rd. Kyle Isbel to 2nd.5–5
8Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Zack Gelof. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd.5–4
8Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Maikel Garcia scores.5–3
6Vinnie Pasquantino homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.5–2
5Zack Gelof grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Nick Loftin. Henry Bolte scores. Jeff McNeil out at 2nd. Zack Gelof to 1st.5–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.