Athletics at Royals
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a fly ball to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Carter Jensen scores. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd.
Win probability
Royals100%
ATH 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 0 KC
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 10 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Tolbert singles on a ground ball to left fielder Carlos Cortes. John Rave scores. Michael Massey scores. Carter Jensen to 2nd. (inning 9) — +49% Royals
9Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a fly ball to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Carter Jensen scores. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd.3–4
9Tyler Tolbert singles on a ground ball to left fielder Carlos Cortes. John Rave scores. Michael Massey scores. Carter Jensen to 2nd.3–3
7Vinnie Pasquantino doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Jac Caglianone scores.3–1
6Max Muncy walks. Zack Gelof scores. Jeff McNeil to 3rd. Lawrence Butler to 2nd.3–0
6Jeff McNeil singles on a line drive to left fielder Nick Loftin. Henry Bolte scores. Zack Gelof to 2nd.2–0
1Tommy White singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Loftin. Zack Gelof scores. Jeff McNeil out at home on the throw, left fielder Nick Loftin to catcher Carter Jensen. Jonah Heim to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
