Athletics at Royals
Last play · Zack Gelof grounds out, third baseman Nick Loftin to first baseman Salvador Perez.
Win probability
Royals100%
ATH 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 2 – 6 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+116 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to left fielder Zack Gelof. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Salvador Perez scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 3rd. (inning 3) — +17% Royals
5Michael Massey doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Isaac Collins scores.2–6
5Donovan Walton grounds out, second baseman Michael Massey to first baseman Salvador Perez. Max Muncy scores. Carlos Cortes to 3rd. Brian Serven to 2nd.2–5
5Brian Serven singles on a line drive to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Lawrence Butler scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. Carlos Cortes to 2nd.1–5
4Salvador Perez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. John Rave to 2nd.0–5
4Nick Loftin triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte, deflected by right fielder Carlos Cortes. Michael Massey scores.0–4
3Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to left fielder Zack Gelof. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Salvador Perez scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 3rd.0–3
1Bobby Witt Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
