Tigers at Royals
Last play · Brett Callahan strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Royals100%
DET 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — +16% Royals
6Nick Loftin flies out to right fielder Zach McKinstry in foul territory.1–3
5Hao-Yu Lee homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
4Salvador Perez homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
3Kyle Isbel homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
