Tigers at Royals
Last play · Dillon Dingler strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
DET 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 0 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 7) — +18% Royals
8Kyle Isbel doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Michael Massey scores.2–5
7Carter Jensen homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
7Kevin McGonigle singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Zach McKinstry scores.2–3
7Zach McKinstry doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Max Clark scores.1–3
6Vinnie Pasquantino homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
5Kyle Isbel homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
4Michael Massey singles on a ground ball to shortstop Kevin McGonigle. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
