Tigers at Royals
DET7–
KC11Last play · Carter Jensen challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Ben Malgeri called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals100%
DET 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 5 – 9 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Hao-Yu Lee scores. (inning 5) — -25% Tigers
8Nick Loftin singles on a line drive to left fielder Ben Malgeri. Kyle Isbel scores. Nick Loftin to 2nd.7–11
8Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to center fielder Max Clark, deflected by second baseman Gleyber Torres. John Rave scores.7–10
7Ben Malgeri walks. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Eduardo Valencia to 2nd.7–9
6Max Clark grounds into a force out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to third baseman Nick Loftin. Spencer Torkelson scores. Brett Callahan out at 3rd. Ben Malgeri to 2nd. Max Clark to 1st.6–9
5John Rave homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Salvador Perez scores.5–9
5Salvador Perez doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Javier Báez. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.5–7
5Vinnie Pasquantino doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Max Clark. Nick Loftin scores.5–6
5Kevin McGonigle homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Hao-Yu Lee scores.5–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.