Blue Jays at Royals
Last play · Isaac Collins grounds out, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Royals0%
TOR 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 3 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kazuma Okamoto singles on a ground ball to center fielder John Rave. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd. (inning 7) — -19% Blue Jays
7Kazuma Okamoto singles on a ground ball to center fielder John Rave. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.4–3
4John Rave homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
3Kazuma Okamoto doubles (23) on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Nathan Lukes scores. Kazuma Okamoto out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Isaac Collins to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to third baseman Josh Rojas.3–2
1Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd.2–2
1Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ernie Clement. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.2–1
1Nathan Lukes singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Alejandro Kirk scores.2–0
1Alejandro Kirk singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Josh Rojas. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Josh Rojas.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
