D-backs at Royals
Last play · Ketel Marte grounds into a double play, second baseman Michael Massey to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Lars Nootbaar out at 2nd. Ketel Marte out at 1st.
Win probability
Royals100%
AZ 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 5 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bobby Witt Jr. homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Isaac Collins scores. Carter Jensen scores. (inning 5) — +33% Royals
5Bobby Witt Jr. homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Isaac Collins scores. Carter Jensen scores.2–5
5Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Jordan Lawlar scores.2–2
4Nolan Arenado homers (23) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
3Carter Jensen homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
2Isaac Collins grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Tim Tawa.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
