D-backs at Royals
Last play · Tyler Tolbert grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
Royals0%
AZ 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 0 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · John Rave homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Loftin scores. (inning 9) — +49% Royals
11Ketel Marte out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Isaac Collins. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores.5–3
11Lourdes Gurriel Jr. doubles (9) on a fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 3rd. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by center fielder Kyle Isbel.4–3
10Vinnie Pasquantino out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tim Tawa. Kyle Isbel scores.3–3
10Tim Tawa singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Gabriel Moreno scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.3–2
9John Rave homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Loftin scores.2–2
9Tim Tawa homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
8Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder John Rave. Ketel Marte scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
