Padres at Angels
Last play · Adam Frazier grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
Win probability
Angels0%
SD 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 0 LAA
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Freddy Fermin scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd. (inning 8) — -26% Padres
9Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Freddy Fermin scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.4–1
9Ramón Laureano out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Mike Trout. Bryce Johnson scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd.3–1
8Nolan Schanuel singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Logan O'Hoppe scores. Adam Frazier to 3rd.2–1
8Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Jake Cronenworth scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd.2–0
8Ramón Laureano singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Freddy Fermin scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
