Padres at Angels
Last play · Nick Castellanos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Angels100%
SD 0%LAA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 8 LAA
Angels led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yoán Moncada homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — +15% Angels
5Josh Lowe homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Oswald Peraza scores.0–8
4Jo Adell doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Mike Trout scores. Nolan Schanuel scores.0–6
4Nolan Schanuel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Adam Frazier scores. Mike Trout to 2nd.0–4
2Zach Neto singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Adam Frazier scores.0–3
2Adam Frazier triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Logan O'Hoppe scores.0–2
2Yoán Moncada homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
