Padres at Angels
Last play · Logan O'Hoppe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Angels0%
SD 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 0 LAA
Padres led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach Neto grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Oswald Peraza scores. (inning 7) — +16% Angels
7Zach Neto grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Oswald Peraza scores.2–1
7Bryce Johnson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Josh Lowe. Xander Bogaerts scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.2–0
4Xander Bogaerts singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
