Blue Jays at Angels
Last play · Adam Frazier strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Angels0%
TOR 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 2 LAA
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Davis Schneider scores. (inning 3) — -23% Blue Jays
9Nathan Lukes grounds out, pitcher Shaun Anderson to first baseman Nolan Schanuel. Myles Straw scores.5–2
7Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Josh Lowe. Myles Straw scores.4–2
6Lenyn Sosa out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Josh Lowe. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.3–2
3Nolan Schanuel out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Zach Neto scores.2–2
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Davis Schneider scores.2–1
1Jorge Soler singles on a ground ball to left fielder Davis Schneider, deflected by shortstop Ernie Clement. Nolan Schanuel scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
