Blue Jays at Angels
Last play · Ernie Clement grounds out, third baseman Vaughn Grissom to first baseman Nolan Schanuel.
Win probability
Angels100%
TOR 0%LAA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 LAA
Angels led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Schanuel doubles (4) on a fly ball to left fielder Nathan Lukes. Mike Trout scores. Jo Adell scores. Yoán Moncada scores. (inning 7) — +36% Angels
7Vaughn Grissom singles on a pop up to right fielder Jesús Sánchez, deflected by second baseman Ernie Clement. Nolan Schanuel scores.3–7
7Nolan Schanuel doubles (4) on a fly ball to left fielder Nathan Lukes. Mike Trout scores. Jo Adell scores. Yoán Moncada scores.3–6
7Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to center fielder Bryce Teodosio, deflected by pitcher Chase Silseth. Nathan Lukes scores.3–3
7Nathan Lukes doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jorge Soler. Andrés Giménez scores.2–3
7Tyler Heineman grounds out, second baseman Vaughn Grissom to first baseman Nolan Schanuel. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.1–3
5Mike Trout homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
4Nolan Schanuel homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
3Jo Adell out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Logan O'Hoppe scores. Bryce Teodosio to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
