Mets at Angels
Last play · Jorge Soler grounds out, shortstop Ronny Mauricio to first baseman Brett Baty.
Win probability
Angels0%
NYM 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 3 LAA
Angels led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Juan Soto scores. Francisco Alvarez scores. (inning 6) — -31% Mets
7Ronny Mauricio homers (1) on a line drive to center field.4–3
6Marcus Semien singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Trout. Juan Soto scores. Francisco Alvarez scores.3–3
6Francisco Alvarez singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 2nd.1–3
3Yoán Moncada strikes out swinging.0–3
1Jorge Soler homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Trout scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
