Astros at Angels
Last play · Denzer Guzman lines out to left fielder Brice Matthews.
Win probability
Angels0%
HOU 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 3 LAA
Angels led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Jeremy Peña scores. (inning 9) — -38% Astros
10Jake Meyers pops out to second baseman Nick Madrigal. Jose Altuve scores.5–4
9Christian Walker singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Jeremy Peña scores.4–4
7Zach Neto homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
6Cam Smith doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Brice Matthews scores.3–3
6LaMonte Wade Jr. doubles (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Isaac Paredes scores.2–3
3Christian Walker doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Yordan Alvarez scores.1–3
2Logan O'Hoppe doubles (5) on a ground ball to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Nick Madrigal scores. Trey Mancini scores.0–3
2Trey Mancini singles on a ground ball to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Jo Adell scores. Nick Madrigal to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
