Rays at Angels
Last play · Jo Adell grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Angels0%
TB 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 3 LAA
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Cedric Mullins scores. (inning 8) — -39% Rays
8Victor Mesa Jr. homers (2) on a line drive to right center field. Hunter Feduccia scores.8–3
8Hunter Feduccia singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Richie Palacios scores.6–3
8Junior Caminero homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Cedric Mullins scores.5–3
5Jo Adell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Logan Porter scores. Jose Siri to 3rd.3–3
5Donovan Walton homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
4Ben Williamson homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
3Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd.2–1
2Denzer Guzman singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Jo Adell scores. Nolan Schanuel to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
