Orioles at Angels
Last play · Donovan Walton strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Angels0%
BAL 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 5 – 0 LAA
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Coby Mayo homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 4) — -29% Orioles
9Jorge Soler homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.6–1
7Gunnar Henderson triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Jo Adell. Taylor Ward scores.6–0
5Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jose Siri. Jeremiah Jackson scores.5–0
4Coby Mayo homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso scores.4–0
1Taylor Ward homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
