Red Sox at Angels
Last play · Jo Adell grounds into a double play, third baseman Caleb Durbin to second baseman Romy Gonzalez to first baseman Willson Contreras. Vaughn Grissom out at 2nd. Jo Adell out at 1st.
Win probability
Angels0%
BOS 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 5 – 0 LAA
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-180 / +148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Romy Gonzalez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. (inning 3) — -21% Red Sox
8Zach Neto singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nate Eaton. Josh Lowe scores.5–2
8Jose Siri homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.5–1
5Caleb Durbin homers (8) on a line drive to left field.5–0
3Jarren Duran hits a sacrifice bunt. Missed catch error by first baseman Nolan Schanuel, assist to pitcher Reid Detmers. Caleb Durbin scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.4–0
3Romy Gonzalez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.3–0
2Jarren Duran out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Josh Lowe. Romy Gonzalez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
