Red Sox at Angels
Last play · Jorge Soler flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
Win probability
Angels0%
BOS 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 7 – 1 LAA
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (19) on a fly ball to left field. Anthony Seigler scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 1) — -28% Red Sox
8Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (20) on a line drive to left fielder Josh Lowe. Andruw Monasterio scores. Connor Wong to 3rd.8–1
5Romy Gonzalez homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Wilyer Abreu scores.7–1
5Wilyer Abreu doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jo Adell. Anthony Seigler scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.5–1
2Josh Lowe homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
1Willson Contreras homers (19) on a fly ball to left field. Anthony Seigler scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
