Astros at Angels
Last play · Zach Neto grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Angels0%
HOU 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 2 LAA
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Nick Allen scores. Christian Vázquez to 3rd. (inning 9) — -34% Astros
9Yordan Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Nick Allen scores. Christian Vázquez to 3rd.3–2
5Jorge Soler doubles (15) on a fly ball to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Mike Trout scores.2–2
4Christian Walker homers (21) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
3Vaughn Grissom singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Zach Neto scores. Jorge Soler to 2nd.1–1
1Yordan Alvarez homers (35) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
