Astros at Angels
Last play · Vaughn Grissom grounds out softly, pitcher Josh Hader to first baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Angels0%
HOU 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 4 LAA
Angels led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Angels challenged (hit by pitch), call on the field was upheld: Isaac Paredes hit by pitch. Lucas Spence scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd. (inning 9) — -38% Astros
9Jose Altuve reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Sam Bachman. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Cam Smith to 2nd.6–4
9Tyler Heineman challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: LaMonte Wade Jr. walks. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.5–4
9Angels challenged (hit by pitch), call on the field was upheld: Isaac Paredes hit by pitch. Lucas Spence scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.4–4
9Lucas Spence reaches on a fielder's choice. Taylor Trammell scores. Nick Allen to 3rd. Fielding error by second baseman Vaughn Grissom.3–4
8Yordan Alvarez singles on a line drive to left fielder Jose Siri. Jeremy Peña scores.2–4
4Taylor Trammell homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
3Jo Adell doubles (16) on a fly ball to right fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Josh Lowe scores.0–4
3Vaughn Grissom homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
