Royals at Angels
Last play · Nick Loftin strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Angels100%
KC 0%LAA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 0 LAA
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Schanuel singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Tyler Tolbert, deflected by first baseman Jac Caglianone. Jose Siri scores. (inning 8) — +29% Angels
8Nolan Schanuel singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Tyler Tolbert, deflected by first baseman Jac Caglianone. Jose Siri scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
