Phillies at Angels
Last play · Adam Frazier strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Angels0%
PHI 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 3 LAA
Angels led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-223 / +206
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Angels favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edmundo Sosa hits a grand slam (6) to center field. Alec Bohm scores. Justin Crawford scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. (inning 9) — -85% Phillies
9Edmundo Sosa hits a grand slam (6) to center field. Alec Bohm scores. Justin Crawford scores. J.T. Realmuto scores.5–3
5Derek Hill singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Vaughn Grissom. Alec Bohm scores. Bryan De La Cruz to 2nd.1–3
1Josh Lowe lines out to right fielder Bryce Harper.0–3
1Christian Moore strikes out swinging.0–2
1Wade Meckler singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Derek Hill. Zach Neto scores. Mike Trout to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
