Mets at Dodgers
Last play · Francisco Lindor grounds into a double play, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Santiago Espinal to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Marcus Semien out at 2nd. Francisco Lindor out at 1st.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
NYM 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 4 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andy Pages homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Tucker scores. Freddie Freeman scores. (inning 3) — +22% Dodgers
3Andy Pages homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Tucker scores. Freddie Freeman scores.0–4
1Will Smith singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Shohei Ohtani scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
