Cubs at Dodgers
Last play · Andy Pages flies out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
CHC 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 4 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 9) — -41% Cubs
9Dansby Swanson homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.6–4
8Alex Bregman homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–4
7Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Dansby Swanson scores.3–4
7Dansby Swanson triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–4
4Hyeseong Kim singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Max Muncy scores.0–4
3Will Smith homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Hyeseong Kim scores. Alex Freeland scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
