Cubs at Dodgers
Last play · Michael Busch flies out sharply to center fielder Andy Pages.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
CHC 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 8 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Shohei Ohtani scores. (inning 3) — +25% Dodgers
6Shohei Ohtani grounds out to first baseman Michael Busch.4–12
6Hyeseong Kim grounds out to first baseman Michael Busch. Dalton Rushing scores. Andy Pages to 3rd.4–11
6Andy Pages doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández scores. Dalton Rushing to 3rd.4–10
5Miguel Amaya homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.4–8
4Cubs challenged (touching a base), call on the field was upheld: Andy Pages singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Teoscar Hernández scores. Dalton Rushing to 2nd.3–8
4Dalton Rushing singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Santiago Espinal scores. Teoscar Hernández to 2nd.3–7
4Teoscar Hernández singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman scores. Santiago Espinal to 3rd.3–6
4Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Alex Freeland scores. Shohei Ohtani to 2nd.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
