Cubs at Dodgers
Last play · Ian Happ grounds out, second baseman Alex Freeland to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
CHC 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 3 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Rojas doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Teoscar Hernández scores. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 1) — +16% Dodgers
7Shohei Ohtani homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.0–6
6Santiago Espinal grounds out, shortstop Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Dalton Rushing to 3rd.0–5
6Dalton Rushing singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Andy Pages scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd.0–4
1Miguel Rojas doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Teoscar Hernández scores. Kyle Tucker scores.0–3
1Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Shohei Ohtani scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
